What To Know About Prediction Markets and Online Gambling
Published: April 3, 2026
If you’re on social media, odds are you’ve probably seen an ad for a prediction market wager. They appear as enticing “yes” or “no” amounts you can place on upcoming events and they’re targeted at everyone — especially those ages 18-24. The most popular prediction market ads come from the web-based platform Kalshi, with questions like:
“Top artist on Spotify this year? Buy Yes – Taylor Swift”
“2026 Men’s World Cup winner? Buy Yes – Spain”
And even which song Bad Bunny would perform first in his Super Bowl halftime show — which resulted in wagers totaling $100 million, according to Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour.
Predetermined amounts for these wagers often start small but increase depending on the amounts of contracts placed. The catch is, these wagers are classified as legal trading agreements based on prediction markets, making them more accessible and much less regulated than state gambling commissions.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets aren’t new. They used to operate through futures contracts — agreements to buy or sell a predetermined amount of some commodity at a given price on a specific date — that helped business owners and buyers experience less impact from drastic changes to the market. This mechanism is now being applied to a wide-range of future event predictions through platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These event contracts let users trade with other users on the probability of real-world outcomes, rather than wagering against the house like with sportsbooks and casinos, in a completely legal way.
The cause for concern
The mechanics are the same as gambling, but the regulations are less restrictive and the opportunities for engagement are 24/7. Now, an 18-year-old has the chance to legally wager money on events that peak their interest like politics and celebrities, as well as sports. This opens the door to major financial risks before a young adult is able to understand the true impact. Like gambling, this can create a cycle of highs and lows causing the user to continue in hopes the next wager will pay off.
Awareness is key
These wagers are often targeting users based on algorithms. This can make it difficult to fully avoid. Instead, be aware of the risks and have a responsible plan before choosing to participate. This can help prevent you from increasing the time and money you spend, and protect you from other potential gambling harms.
If you or someone you know frequently engages in these activities, consider taking the free two-minute quiz to evaluate your relationship with gambling and gauge your risk. Pause Before You Play also has a list of various resources and anonymous support groups for individuals who might need help. Visit PauseBeforeYouPlay.org/get-help to learn more.
Follow us at @Pausebeforeyouplay_oh on Instagram, @PBYP_OH on X, and Pause Before You Play on Facebook to stay updated on the latest responsible gambling information.
If you, or someone you know, needs help, support is available 24/7 through the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline. Call 1-800-589-9966 or text 988 to speak to a trained and understanding specialist at no cost.